Kyle Shanahan coin toss strategy Why 49ers coach likes to defer how effective it was in 2023
Kyle Shanahan coin toss strategy Why 49ers coach likes to defer how effective it was in 2023
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Most coaches will say the best strategy when winning a coin to s is to defer to the second half. Count Kyle Shanahan Jon Bostic Jersey among those coaches.Shanahan does not give his offense the ball first if he has any say in the matter. Dating back to when he was hired in San Francisco in 2018, , only five teams have won the coin to s and elected to defer to the second half every time: the Giants, Rams, Seahawks, Saints, and 49ers.Even the Chiefs, who largely follow the same strategy, elected to receive the opening kickoff when playing the Jaguars in Week 10, 2022, the only time since 2018 the Chiefs have made that decision.If the 49ers wind up winning the coin to s, it's just about a foregone conclusion they will elect to kick the ball to the Chiefs to start the game. Why is this Shanahan's mentality, and how has it fared for him? Here's what you need to know.MORE SUPER BOWL 58: | | Shanahan refuses to take the ball first even when there's an argument for doing so.The Packers showed how dangerous they could be when taking the ball to start the game against the Cowboys, setting the tone early with a scoring drive. Facing them in the divisional round, would Shanahan and the 49ers take the ball to try and slow down Green Bay?Simply put, no."I think Jordna Love can have rhythm in the beginning of the third quarter, too," Shanahan said in his pre s conference two days before the game. "I think he had some good rhythm on the second drive, also. I don't think it's because he started with the ball, personally, but that's just everyone's preference."It's always good to get up to a big lead. It's also good to score at the end of the second quarter and get the ball first, just like Dallas did, which would've got them right back into it if they did score in the opening third and Green Bay didn't answer. If I felt our team was struggling in something, that would change your mind."The strategy has had some merit. Teams that start the game on offense have a 47.3-percent winning percentage since 2018. Teams starting on defense have a 52.7-percent winning percentage.Of teams that won the coin to s and elected to defer, those squads have a 52.4-percent winning percentage. Only once in the past six seasons (2021) did teams that deferred have a sub-.500 winning percentage (49.6 percent).Those odds are still largely a coin flip as to who wins, and even if it does provide a slight edge, the edge is slim.SUPER BOWL ODDS: | | In 2023, the 49ers were 4-2 when winning the coin to s. They went 12-5 overall, meaning that 66.7-percent winning percentage is slightly le s than their overall 70.6-percent winning percentage.Shanahan's general idea, like it is for all coaches who believe in deferring, is to score to end the first half and score again to start the second half."Yeah, just to kind of lap them. That's the advantage," Shanahan said before the Packers' playoff game. "If not, I think it usually plays out even. But you've got a chance to get an extra po se sion. I didn't used to know this or think it, but just listening to people for the last 15 years. I didn't think about it all growing up or when I first got into the league, but Camaron Cheeseman Jersey watching it all now and really studying it since I was in Atlanta, I just feel pretty strong about it."In the two lo ses, which came to the Vikings and Ravens, that strategy did not play out as intended. The Vikings scored a 60-yard touchdown with seven seconds left in the first half and the 49ers punted to open the second half. The Ravens kicked a field goal to walk off the first half and the 49ers punted to start the second.The four wins saw better results for Shanahan's strategy. Ultimately beating the Cardinals 35 Jonathan Allen Jersey -16, San Francisco saw Arizona score a touchdown to end the first half and the 49ers punt to start the third. In the 34-3 win over Jacksonville, the 49ers settled for a field goal as time expired in the first half, then took two plays to score a 66-yard touchdown to open the third quarter.San Francisco couldn't quite wind the clock out against the Eagles, but the strategy still largely worked well. Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown with 38 seconds left to extend San Francisco's lead to 14-6, then the 49ers took 3:19 in the third quarter before getting Deebo Samuel into the end zone to push the lead to 21-6.The second time facing the Cardinals, San Francisco got the ball back with 53 seconds left in the first half but wound up throwing an incompletion on a time-expiring Hail Mary attempt. The 49ers did open the second half with a touchdown on a 41-yard pa s to McCaffrey to push the lead out to 28-13.The 49ers also won the coin to s against the Lions in the NFC championship game, but they did little with it. The Lions kicked a field goal to push their lead to 24-7 with 10 seconds left in the first half, leaving Brock Purdy only to kneel out the ball. The 49ers' second-half opening drive did result in points, but only a field goal.There's nothing overly revolutionary or crazy about Shanahan's philosophy. Since 2018, 90.7 percent of teams that won the coin to s have opted to defer to the second half. The Chiefs are one such team, much like the 49ers, that likes to start the second half with the ball. Kansas City has opted to receive the opening kickoff only once since 2018.If there's ever a time to set the tone early, it's in the Super Bowl, but given both coaches' strong tendencies of wanting the ball to open the second half, don't expect either to make a decision that might play into the other's favor.
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